Bantamweight Bout
Journey Newson vs. Fernie Garcia – A fighter potentially at the end of his UFC career will get one last shot against a fighter looking to start his own octagon journey. Newson is 0-2 with a no-contest inside the octagon, while Garcia is coming off an impressive win on the Contender Series and making his UFC debut. Newson also hasn’t fought since September of 2020, when he was knocked out in just 41 seconds by Randy Costa. On the other hand, Garcia just fought 6 months ago on the Contender Series and scored a first-round knockout victory.
That knockout for Garcia was the first KO/TKO finish he scored in his pro career; he’s only finished 4 of his 10 pro wins with that knockout and 3 submissions. Newson is a bit more well-rounded as he has 9 pro wins, split evenly across KO/TKO, submission, and decision. Looking at their losses though, Newson has been knocked out twice and dropped one decision, whereas Garcia only has 1 loss by decision and has shown some durability.
Garcia is bigger, has the reach advantage, has the better team behind him training at Fortis MMA, is more durable, and sets a higher pace. Newson’s back is to the wall here, the pressure is on, and we’ll see how that affects him. With Garcia’s high pace, with the pressure on Newson, I think we see him break.
Pick: Fernie Garcia by KO/TKO RD 2
Women’s Strawweight Bout
“Loopy” Lupita Godinez vs. Ariane “Sorriso” Carnelossi – These women are sitting just outside the top 15 of the division. A win here could see them facing a top-ranked opponent next. Godinez is 2-2 in the UFC right now, but she really should be 3-1. Her loss to Jessica Penne in her UFC debut was a split decision robbery, she rebounded with a first round submission over Silvana Gomez Juarez before taking another fight just 7 days later against Luana Carolina. Carolina defeated her by decision but Godinez got back in the cage just over a month later and got back in the win column with a decision over Loma Lookboonmee. Carnelossi also lost in her UFC debut as she was stopped due to a cut against Angela Hill. Since then though, she has been on fire. Carnelossi knocked out Na Liang and submitted Istela Nunes and she looks like a real powerhouse in this division.
Godinez undoubtedly has heart, getting back in the cage just a week after her last fight was impressive, even if she did end up losing. Will that be enough against a powerful fighter like Carnelossi? Godinez is the more technical fighter, she’s more efficient with everything she does, but when you have the type of power and finishing ability that Carnelossi has, you only need one chance. If Godinez makes a mistake, Carnelossi is going to make her pay for it. Carnelossi also throws more volume so she is going to be forcing the action and looking for the chance she needs to end this fight.
Godinez can absolutely win this fight, but the issue I’m seeing is that she really only has one way to do so. She’s not a finisher, she’s only stopped 2 of her 7 pro wins and while Carnelossi has been stopped in both of her losses, I don’t see Godinez being the type of fighter to get it done. Godinez has never been finished, but I absolutely could see Carnelossi being the first to do so. I can also see Carnelossi having the big moments in this fight, using her power to gain control in some scrambles and winning the decision. Carnelossi simply has more ways to win and I have to favor her because of that.
Pick: Ariane Carnelossi by Decision
Flyweight Bout
Kleydson “KR” Rodrigues vs. CJ Vergara – This is an interesting match-up between two alums from the Contender Series. I was a little surprised to see Rodrigues get a UFC contract as he won by decision on the Contender Series, and this will be his octagon debut. Vergara already made his own UFC debut back in November and had some moments but ultimately came up short in a decision against Ode Osbourne. There are a lot of questions to be answered for both fighters about their potential in this division, and this match-up should provide us a clearer picture of that at the end of the night.
Vergara’s win over Bruno Korea on the Contender Series was impressive, but the fight only lasted 41 seconds, so we didn’t get to see his whole game. In his UFC debut, Ode Osbourne exposed some holes in his game over the entire 15-minute fight. How is Vergara going to respond to that? It’s not the first time he’s lost, and there’s a chance that he was suffering from octagon jitters in his debut, so I think we see a better version of him here.
On the other side, Rodrigues will be dealing with those jitters now, and after a decision win on the Contender Series, he really needs to prove that stepping into the big leagues was the right move for him. Yes, Vergara has a similar level of experience and is only 0-1 in the UFC, but make no mistake, this is still a step up in competition for Rodrigues.
Vergara will be hungry to rebound and get back in the win column, and I expect him to have a quick start. Even if Rodrigues survives that fast start, I expect Vergara to have made some changes to his game and fight a little more calculated in the later rounds. Ultimately, I didn’t see enough out of Rodrigues on the Contender Series to think he’ll have success in the UFC, and Vergara has shown he can at least be competitive in the octagon already.
Pick: CJ Vergara by Decision
Women’s Flyweight Bout
Tracy Cortez vs. Melissa Gatto – This is a big fight for both of these women as both are currently top prospects in the division, and a win here could help bring them close to the top rankings. Cortez had some hype coming onto the Contender Series, and she has continued to build that by earning a UFC contract with a win there and going 3-0 so far in the UFC. Gatto submitted Karol Rosa before joining the UFC, where she has won back-to-back fights, both by KO/TKO, though one was due to her opponent breaking her arm. Both of these fighters have shown serious potential, but both have also shown some holes in their games that seem like they are just waiting to be exploited.
Cortez is a pretty well-rounded fighter, but she also looks a little small for the division and can’t really put fighters away. She’s only finished 2 of her 9 pro wins, with both stoppages coming back-to-back in 2018. On the other hand, Gatto has finished 6 of her 8 pro wins with 4 submissions and 2 KO/TKOs.
This is going to be a tough fight for both of these women. Cortez is tough as nails and pushes the pace; she’ll make Gatto work and look to wear on her in the grappling exchanges to take over the longer the fight goes. Gatto looks like the more powerful fighter though, so wearing on her in the grappling is going to be difficult, especially early, and she’s the more potent finisher, so Cortez will need to be careful to not get caught.
This one really could go either way, and as much as I hate on the UFC matchmakers, I should give credit where it’s due as this is a well put together pairing. This is the exact type of test both of these fighters need right now, as Cortez needs to show she can take on a dangerous finisher like Gatto and still come out victorious. For Gatto, she needs to show that she can perform when the pressure is on, this is a big fight against a super tough opponent who is really going to make her work for the win.
In that equation, I’m favoring Cortez very slightly. Her toughness and pace should help her keep pushing and edge out the rounds, but that durability is bound to break at some point, and it wouldn’t shock me if Gatto is the one to get it done.
Pick: Tracy Cortez by Decision
Welterweight Bout
Francisco “Massaranduba” Trinaldo vs. Danny “Hot Chocolate” Roberts – No offense to Roberts, but I wish they would give Trinaldo a real chance to make a run at Welterweight instead of keeping him in the middle of the pack to the lower end. Trinaldo is 4-1 in his last 5, with his only loss coming against Muslim Salikhov, who’s just outside the top 15 of the division, and he was ranked at Lightweight before he moved up. Trinaldo is 43 years old; this isn’t the type of opponent that will get Trinaldo into any top rankings or put him in a position for any high-profile fights. Roberts is still a formidable opponent though; he’s 3-2 in his last 5 and is coming off back-to-back victories over Zelim Imadaev and Ramazan Emeev.
On the feet, Roberts hits a bit harder; he’s the more fluid striker and throws very slightly more volume. Trinaldo is better defensively, he has some pop in his shots and is just as accurate, so Roberts can’t be too comfortable striking with him. The wrestling and grappling edges go to Trinaldo, who should be able to control this fight on the floor or in the clinch.
At 43 years old though, we have to wonder how much Trinaldo has left in the tank. He just fought Dwight Grant, who he only defeated by split decision, though Grant has a knack for making fights closer than they should be, to his benefit and dismay alike. If Trinaldo is hampered by father time, Roberts has everything needed to make him suffer, but assuming Trinaldo is still in the shape we’ve seen him lately, he has what it takes to win this fight. Expect Trinaldo to control the pace, frustrate Roberts and win on points.
Pick: Francisco Trinaldo by Decision
Heavyweight Bout
#15 Blagoy “Baga” Ivanov vs Marcos Rogerio “Pezao” de Lima – This is a big fight for these two Heavyweights, who are currently trending in opposite directions. Ivanov was the WSOF champ before he joined the UFC and there was some hype around him. It makes sense that they immediately threw him to the wolves as he was a champion in other major organization. He’s currently 2-3 in the UFC, he dropped a decision to former champ Junior dos Santos in his debut but rebounded with a pair of wins over Ben Rothwell and Tai Tuivasa. Since then however, Ivanov has dropped back to back fights, losing close split decisions to Derrick Lewis and Augusto Sakai. He’s dropped to the #15 spot and if he loses this fight, not only will he be out of the rankings, but he could be on the chopping block as well. For de Lima, he’s turned his career around at Heavyweight and this is a huge opportunity for him. He had been trading wins and losses back and forth for a while now, in fact the last time he had put together two wins in a row was in 2014. A decision win over Maurice Greene and a quick TKO of Ben Rothwell have set de Lima up for an opportunity to break into the top 15 of the Heavyweight division.
de Lima is a finisher, make no mistake about it, the guy has only been to decision 5 times in his 27 pro fights. One of those was a draw, one was a loss and three were actually victories, but two of those decision victories have been within his last six fights. de Lima has shown some improvements as of late that he can win rounds, but usually if one of his fights is going to decision, it’s sloppy and lackluster.
On the other side, Ivanov is much more well rounded and much more of a tactician. This guy has 18 pro wins and they are split evenly across KO/TKO, submission and decision with 6 a piece. The longer this fight goes, the more it should favor Ivanov. He’ll have the edge in wrestling and grappling, but controlling a giant like de Lima is easier said than done.
Ivanov has always been a smaller Heavyweight though and knows how to make his game work against larger opponents. He’ll have to be careful as de Lima has one shot knockout power, but Ivanov is tough as nails, he’s never been stopped by strikes and should be able to outclass and outwork de Lima to win the rounds.
Pick: Blagoy Ivanov by Decision
Flyweight Bout
#6 Brandon “Raw Dawg” Royval vs. #9 Matt “Danger” Schnell – These two top-ranked Flyweights will be vying for a spot in the title picture with this fight. Royval is 3-2 in the UFC, starting his octagon career with back-to-back submission victories over Tim Elliot and Kai Kara-France, which instantly made him a contender. Back-to-back losses followed though, as a shoulder injury ended his fight against Brandon Moreno, and he was submitted by Alexandre Pantoja. In his most recent outing, Royval was able to get back into the win column with a close split decision victory over Rogerio Bontorin. Schnell is also 3-2 in his last 5 as he was coming off back-to-back wins over Louis Smolka and Jordan Espinosa before he ran into Alexandre Pantoja, who knocked him out in the first round. Since then, Schnell has been to decision twice, taking a close split decision over Tyson Nam and dropping a unanimous decision to Rogerio Bontorin.
Bontorin is a common opponent for them as they both faced him recently; using MMA math, which is highly inaccurate, Royval should have the edge. In this case, I agree with it though. Both fighters tend to excel during scrambles, but Royval is better. Royval is the better grappler overall, and while Schnell should have the edge on the feet, he’ll be too willing to tie up and grapple for his own good.
Pick: Brandon Royval by Submission RD 1
Women’s Featherweight Bout
Macy Chiasson vs. Norma “The Immortal” Dumont – This division is pointless, and every fight that’s not a title fight is essentially meaningless. Until we get an actual roster of Featherweights and real rankings, why should anyone care about this division at all? Amanda Nunes is the champion, and yes, a win could set one of these fighters up in a position to face Nunes. But Nunes will rematch Julianna Pena and is filming the next season of TUF, so she’s tied up for the foreseeable future. One of these two would have to do something ridiculously spectacular for their win here to not be completely forgotten about by the time Nunes is available to defend the 145lbs belt. Do I see either fighter being able to pull something like that off in this match-up? The answer is absolutely not, and that’s not disrespecting either of these fighters; in fact, it’s the exact opposite. Both of these fighters are talented, and I see this being a hard fight for either of them, so when I’m saying either would have to do something spectacular, I just don’t see it being in the cards. A finish would be good, but that’s not what I’m saying either of these women would need to secure the title shot. They would need a Molly McCann spinning elbow, knockout of the year contender style finish to not be forgotten about and cement themselves as someone the fans would want to see against Nunes.
Now that I’ve gotten that rant out of the way, I can get to the analysis of this match-up. Chiasson has shown glimpses of greatness as she won TUF 28 by defeating Larissa Pacheco, Leah Letson, and Pannie Kianzad. After that, Chiasson finished Gina Mazany and Sarah Moras, both by TKO. Since then, she’s gone 2-2, dropping a decision to Lina Lansberg, defeating Shanna Young and Marion Reneau, and, most recently, getting submitted by Raquel Pennington. Chiasson is a natural Featherweight; she’s got some serious power, she sets a high pace early, her wrestling is decent, and her ground and pound is nasty.
Dumont lost by TKO in the first round in her UFC debut against Megan Anderson, and it looked like she would fall into obscurity. Instead, she’s rebounded with three straight wins over Ashlee Evans-Smith, Felicia Spencer, and Aspen Ladd. The issue with Dumont is that she really isn’t a finisher; she’s only stopped 2 of her 7 pro wins, both by submission.
We’ve only seen Dumont lose by knockout in the first round, so her facing an opponent like Chiasson, there is some worry that she could get blitzed early and get taken out. We’ve seen Chiasson have her own struggles though, and she’s the underdog in this fight for good reason. Dumont has shown significant improvements, and unless she gets run over early by Chiasson, she should be able to take over the fight and win on the scorecards.
Pick: Norma Dumont by Decision
Welterweight Bout
Randy “Rude Boy” Brown vs. Khaos “The Oxfighter” Williams – Another big fight here, just like the one before this, both of these fighters are rising prospects, and a win here will have them inching closer to the top rankings. These fighters are 4-1 in their last 5 fights, with that loss sitting between pairs of wins. Brown was coming off a knockout of Bryan Barberena and a submission over Warlley Alves before facing current top-ranked fighter Vicente Luque. Luque knocked him out in the second round, but Brown has since been able to rebound with a pair of wins, a submission over Alex Oliveira, and a decision victory over Jared Gooden. Williams was coming off knockouts over Alex Morono and Abdul Razak Alhassan and looked like a genuinely terrifying force to be reckoned with, but that dropped a bit after he lost a decision to Michel Pereira. Since then, Williams has come back with a decision win over Matt Semelsberger and a knockout over Miguel Baeza.
Honestly, I favored Brown when first looking at this match-up, but I’ve been more impressed with Williams as of late, and this is closer than it may appear at first glance. Both fighters are mainly strikers, Brown being the more technically sound with better defense whereas Williams throws more volume and power. Neither fighter attempts many takedowns but if one of them does, it will very likely be Brown and he would be at an advantage on the floor. With Brown having the slight reach advantage, being the more proficient striker and better grappler, you can see why I was originally favoring him.
That being said, Williams has been facing the higher-level competition lately and has been performing better as well. Brown’s last two opponents have both been cut by the UFC, and the two opponents he holds wins over before that are middle of the pack fighters at best. Looking closer at Williams last 4 victories, Alex Morono is a solid middle of the pack fighter who at times has started to move to a higher end gatekeeper role. Abdul Razak Alhassan is a one trick pony but he’s super dangerous, Semelsberger has been on a tear recently and is an interesting prospect and Baeza has shown glimpses of serious talent before he hit his current rough patch.
After looking at their recent level of competition, this fight becomes a lot more compelling. Williams’ takedown defense worries me a bit, but other than that, he should be able to handle himself on the feet just fine. Williams throws more volume and Brown’s defense isn’t the best on the feet, neither is his chin. I want to pick Williams by knockout but Brown should be good enough to avoid getting finished. The big moments in the fight will go to Williams though and it should be enough to edge him the win, though it’s close enough I wouldn’t bet on it.
Pick: Khaos Williams by Decision
Welterweight Bout
Andre Fialho vs Cameron “The Invader” VanCamp – This fight was put together last minute and should be an entertaining one for however long it lasts. Fialho is currently 1-1 in the UFC as he made a short notice debut against Michel Pereira and came up short, losing by decision. Since then, he has rebounded with a brutal knockout win over Miguel Baeza, which was a huge win and he could start making waves in the division. VanCamp was signed a while back but was unable to ever make his debut until now.
I believe VanCamp was originally signed to replace someone on short notice and he’s a decent prospect, but nothing about him really stands out to me. Currently 93% of the picks on Tapology are taking Fialho to win, with 83% of those picking him to win by knockout. That seems like the most likely outcome.
Pick: Andre Fialho by KO/TKO RD 1
Pick Record for 2022: 108-62
Lightweight Bout *** BOUT RESCHEDULED to MAY 14 ***
Michael “The Menace” Johnson vs. Alan “Nuguette” Patrick – Expect the loser of this fight to be handed their walking papers and maybe even retire at the end of the night. It’s crazy to think that Johnson’s last win was more recent than Patrick’s, as it seems so long ago that we’ve seen Johnson have any kind of success. Johnson is 1-4 in his last 5, coming off 4 straight losses, 2 of which were finished with a submission and a knockout, and his last win was over Artem Lobov in October of 2018. Patrick is 2-2 with a no-contest in his last 5 fights, the most recent being the no-contest against Mason Jones due to an eye poke that ended the fight in June of 2021. Before that, he dropped a decision to Bobby Green in 2020 and was TKO’d by Scott Holtzman in 2018. We have to go all the way back to February of 2018 for his last win, a decision over Damir Hadzovic, and before that, a decision win over Stevie Ray in September of 2016.
At least Johnson has been more active. Johnson was once also a top contender in this division, close to a title shot, given we have to go all the way back to the beginning of 2015 when that was the case, but we had to go back to 2016 just to find one of Patrick’s most recent wins. I think it’s safe to say that Johnson has reached heights in this sport that Patrick never will. Does that mean he’s a better fighter at this point though? It really becomes a question of who has more left in the tank at their ages, as Johnson is 35 and Patrick is 38, and who’s taken more damage?
The problem is, I feel like the answer to both of those questions is the same. Michael Johnson has taken more damage, his overall record is worse, but he’s faced a much higher level of competition and likely has more left in the tank. Johnson is the better striker and wrestler, so I’m going to say he takes this one, but he’s far from consistent, so everything going off the rails and Patrick even winning in dominant fashion wouldn’t be shocking.
Pick: Michael Johnson by Decision
MMA Oracles 